解读比特币期货数据:小投资者看多,大交易公司看空
采撷全球财经资讯，支持共享，欢迎转发。
股市行情
美国股市：标普500指数周一延续2018年开始以来的涨势，不过势头已大幅放缓，因医保和金融股承压，且投资者正在等待财报季的开始。
标普500指数上涨0.2%，报2747.71点
道琼斯工业平均指数持平，报25283.0点
纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%，报7157.386点
欧洲股市：触及逾两年最高水平，因对全球经济成长的信心和并购活动增加，继续提振投资者对股市的兴致。
斯托克欧洲600指数上涨0.3%，报398.41点
英国富时100指数下降0.4%，报7696.51点
法国CAC 40指数上涨0.3%，报5487.42点
德国DAX指数上涨0.4%，报13367.78点
国际要闻
路透：美国银行业者预计新税法将带来长期好处，但需忍受短痛
美国银行业高管和投资者预计，新的联邦税法将会带来长期好处，但大型银行首先需要提列数十亿美元的费用，这将影响第四季业绩。为了因应公司税率下降，银行将需要调整递延税项资产和负债，并且还要提列与其他税务变化相关的费用。但分析师表示，减税的整体效益将能弥补短期打击。银行可以扩大将资金用于股票回购及派发股息，以提供投资人甜头。但有人担心银行业者这类动作若过于迅速，资金将无法转于用在降低贷款价格以击败竞争对手，以及强化对客户服务上。
金融时报：量化对冲基金资产规模有望突破1万亿美元
量化对冲基金业管理的资产今年有望超过1万亿美元，人们对更系统化、电脑化的投资策略日益增加的兴趣推动了极速增长。截至2017年10月底，由数据提供商HFR追踪的量化对冲基金管理的资金已增长至逾9400亿美元，接近2010年水平的两倍。另据对冲基金高管表示，第四季度的资金流仍保持强劲。人们对自动化算法投资方式——从简单策略到由人工智能驱动的高强度策略——兴趣的爆炸式增长，推动了这轮高增长。就连许多传统对冲基金如今也在聘用数据科学家和程序员，将自身重塑为量化对冲基金。
路透：朝鲜及韩国将展开会谈，冬奥会成破冰契机
，讨论朝鲜运动员要如何参加下个月在韩国举开的冬季奥运会，尽管冲突的疑虑沸沸扬扬。虽然会晤的议程有限，主要集中在运动方面的议题，但这场会议将会受到全球瞩目，因他们急切地想要看到朝鲜半岛紧张情势任何的减轻迹象；目前对于朝鲜发展核武和严拒配合联合国安理会的决议等疑虑不断升温。来自两国的各五位资深官员将会在板门店韩方“和平之家”会面，将于周二0100GMT开始协商
路透：OPEC不会对短暂的小规模石油供应干扰做出回应
一位来自主要中东产国油的高层消息人士表示，OPEC正在监控伊朗的动荡局面以及委内瑞拉的经济危机，但除非这些国家的生产受到重大且持续的干扰，否则OPEC不会增产。委内瑞拉经济危机已重创该国石油生产，目前产量处于将近30年低位，。“尽管(来自伊朗或委内瑞拉)出现供应受干扰的问题...OPEC不会增加产量，”该名OPEC资深人士表示，“OPEC的政策是将库存压低至正常水平，且将坚持下去，除非供应每日减少约100万桶的情况持续超过一个月，导致原油供应短缺。
报道
金融时报：对委托贷款业务出台新限制
.8万亿元人民币（合2.13万亿美元）的委托贷款业务出台了新的限制，这表明北京方面2017年对业发起的打击将在新的一年延续。银行业监督管理委员会(CBRC)在刚刚过去的周末发布新规，禁止银行代发放委托贷款的公司做出决策，以及对这类贷款提供担保。新规还禁止这类贷款的借款企业用贷款资金购买股票、债券或衍生工具。新规将银行在委托贷款业务中的角色缩减为中介。。
金融时报专栏：特朗普税改对真正的挑战
特朗普政府虽然通过了美国税改，是其上任以来的巨大成就，短期内有积极效应，但并未直击美国竞争力下滑的本质，长期来看，或增加债务负担并削弱经济增长。而对美国税改的影响，过度担忧大可不必，毕竟仍具备产业配套、成本较低以及庞大消费市场的优势，美国企业的资本回流是有限的。而面临的真正挑战是，如何在内外部经济环境平稳的背景下，加快推进自身结构性改革的步伐，在财税改革这一硬骨头上有所突破，改善增长的质量。
原文选读
华尔街日报：解读比特币期货数据：小投资者看多，大交易公司看空
小型投资者押注比特币价格将上涨，而对冲基金和其他大型交易商则押注价格下跌。这就是Cboe Global Markets Inc.上月推出的美国首个比特币期货市场在交易四周后快速发展的形势。交易者利用期货合约押注标的资产的价格未来是会上涨还是下跌。
美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 简称CFTC)截至上周二的最新交易数据显示，在持有少于25张Cboe比特币期货合约（这一群体中可能包括许多散户投资者）的交易员中，多头头寸是空头头寸的3.6倍。
Little Guys and Big Trading Firms Square Off in Bitcoin Futures Arena
ALEXANDER OSIPOVICH
Small investors are betting that bitcoin’s price will rise, while hedge funds and other large traders are betting it will fall.
That is the pattern rapidly emerging after four weeks of trading in the first U.S. bitcoin futures market, launched last month by Cboe Global Markets Inc. Futures are a type of contract that enables traders to wager whether the future price of an underlying asset will rise or fall.
For traders who hold fewer than 25 of Cboe’s bitcoin futures contracts—a category that likely encompasses many retail investors—bullish bets are 3.6 times more common than bearish ones, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data that cover trading through Tuesday.
At Cboe, the big players in bitcoin futures tend to be short, betting the future price will be lower. For instance, among “other reportables”—large trading firms that don’t necessarily manage money for outside investors—short bets outweighed bullish “long” bets by a factor of 2.6 last week.
The CFTC has yet to begin publishing similar data on a competing bitcoin futures contract listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, owned by Cboe’s larger rival, CME Group Inc.
The early futures trading activity seemed to align with the perception of how big and small traders view bitcoin itself. Frenzied buying by retail investors world-wide helped power bitcoin’s extraordinary rally last year. The digital currency surged about 1,330% in 2017 and was trading at $16,764.99 late Friday afternoon, according to CoinDesk.
Many skeptics on Wall Street have called bitcoin a bubble and would be more apt to bet on its decline. In a sign of how more conservative firms are keeping their distance, the CFTC data show near-zero trading in Cboe’s bitcoin futures by banks and asset managers.
“There is probably more optimism in the retail segment than there is in the institutional segment,” said Steven Sanders, an executive vice president at Interactive Brokers Group Inc., an electronic brokerage firm that offers its customers access to bitcoin futures.
With bitcoin futures, pessimists now have a way to attempt to profit from a price drop by going short.
Hedge funds and other money managers had placed almost 40% more short bets than long bets last week, according to the CFTC data. That represented a less bearish outlook than they had in late December, when such funds had more than four times as many short bets as long bets.
These numbers don’t include bets made as part of what the CFTC calls “spreading” strategies, in which a firm is both long and short at the same time.
Shorting bitcoin futures doesn’t necessarily mean a trader expects bitcoin to crash. A cryptocurrency trading firm with significant holdings of bitcoin might go short to hedge those inventories against a price fall. That would make the firm indifferent as to whether bitcoin goes up or down.
Going short could also be part of certain sophisticated trading strategies, such as betting that rival cryptocurrencies will outperform bitcoin. One such rival, Ethereum, rose above $1,000 for the first time last week, more than double its value from the beginning of December.
With the CFTC data, “you’re not seeing the full picture,” said James Koutoulas, chief executive of hedge-fund firm Typhon Capital Management, which trades futures in bitcoin as well as commodities. Typhon has swung back and forth, being long and short bitcoin futures at various times, Mr. Koutoulas said.
Analysts say Cboe’s bitcoin contract is geared more toward small retail investors because CME futures require more cash upfront to trade.
Activity in Cboe’s and CME’s futures has been muted, especially compared to the booming market for bitcoin itself. The combined size of the nascent bitcoin-futures markets at the two exchanges was roughly $150 million on Friday, measured in terms of the value of outstanding contracts, while the total value of all bitcoins in existence was around $290 billion, according to coinmarketcap.com.
And at both Cboe and CME, the average number of bitcoin contracts traded each day has been below the level set on each exchange’s first full day of trading on Dec. 11 and Dec. 18, respectively. Intense media hype helped fuel heavy trading when both contracts launched.
One factor behind the slow volume growth may be the reluctance of many Wall Street banks to touch bitcoin futures. Firms such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Merrill Lynch haven’t offered their clients access to bitcoin futures.
